EFFECTS OF AUTONOMOUS WEAPON SYSTEMS OVER NEW GENERATION WAR: INSTANCE OF ARAMCO ATTACK

 

As of the 21st century, we clearly see the effects of the 4th generation war on the battlefields. The confrontation between the Taliban and the US forces, which we can define as non-state actors in the conflicts in Afghanistan, clearly reveals the radical change in the struggling elements. It is possible to see all the examples of the new generation war in Libya and Syria, where the internal rebellions were experienced with the effect of the Arab Spring. The irregular warfare of the armed groups, which are in a weak position compared to a regular army, against the state, constitutes the outlines of the war period that we are in.

 

SECOND CHAPTER

2. NEW GENERATION WAR

We are at the last link of the knowledge that each past century has passed on for the next generations. If we consider that the elements of war one or more centuries later, the methods of war will proceed in parallel with technological development, it seems likely that it will be at a very different point from the military sense of the present day. Compared with the old wars, mechanization increased in the battlefields; It is clearly seen that human influence has started to decrease to some extent. In addition, political problems such as terrorism and identity search have emerged. The idea from the 1648 Westphalia treaty, which defends the idea that the power to use power belongs to the state, has changed (Eker, 2015b). All of these are important points of the new generation war. Along with mechanization, armed groups or 'military proxy'[1] that shape their actions in line with the interests of the states may cause the time limit of the new generation wars to be uncertain.

Despite the intervention of the Soviets in Afghanistan in 1979, the USA's support for the Taliban; It constitutes an important example of military proxy. The fact that the Taliban has a significant say throughout the country with the support provided by the USA shows that the new generation war is shaped on the basis of non-state armed organizations. Another example is Syria, where the civil war broke out after the Arab spring in 2011. In terms of the effect it has created, the weapon systems used and the warfare methods applied, the Syrian civil war has a feature that includes all the parameters of today's wars.

Today's wars, defined as the new generation war or the 4th generation war, have subheadings that shape the battlefields. Supporting proxy-based attacks with psychological and cyber-based attacks reveals a versatile war practice. This method of war, called hybrid warfare, refers to the absence of traditional combat methods by using all combat vehicles within the battlefield (Duygulu, 2019a). The fact that the hybrid war strategy contains cyber, psychological and electronic warfare titles clearly shows that today's wars have gained an asymmetrical effect. The concept of asymmetric warfare has emerged with the low impact elements that applying the irregular warfare conditions. Accordingly, Saudi Arabia, which has spent billions of dollars on its defense budget, was attacked with lower cost unmanned aerial vehicles, and this is one of the most effective examples of the irregular war. The fact that the attack was carried out with a semi-autonomous armed unmanned aerial vehicle shows that the artificial intelligence-based military industry has developed. Therefore, understanding the cyber wars, psychological wars[2] and of course the autonomous weapon systems that are the main topics of the new generation war will be beneficial in terms of taking the necessary measures against these new threats.

2.1. Cyber Wars

The evolving technology of war has transformed the Internet into an offensive platform and has become one of the new combat methods of our time. It is frequently used today due to the fact that it is difficult to follow the attacks using internet connection compared to other attack methods (Duygulu, 2019b). Cyber ​​attacks can cause serious damage in terms of the effect it has, but low cost. Therefore, cyber attacks are a clear example of the impact of the information age we are in on the battlefields.

Proxy wars, which occupied the world agenda with the mid-19th century, introduced the concept of 'Cyber ​​Proxy' in integration with the cyber attack logic. Instead of armed groups struggling for the state it serves on the battlefield, cyber proxies emerge  attacking the corporate infrastructure of the target country. This gives clues that the new threat elements will be low in cost and high in impact.

2.2. Psychological Wars

It is possible with a psychological war to harm the side that is defined as an enemy in the new generation war without using any military elements. It is an effective method that states are using today to influence societies' minds and direct them for a specific purpose (Tarhan, 2019). The most effective weapon of psychological warfare is a set of messages known as black propaganda that can mobilize communities in a certain direction, rather than right and wrong. The best example of propaganda was the image called Uncle Sam, with a poster saying 'I want you for the American army' during World War II. It is clearly seen that psychological warfare has gained importance in parallel with the evolving communication opportunities with this poster which has a great impact.

2.3. Autonomous Weapon Systems

The new generation of war; The military element supported by artificial intelligence, which is incomparable with the old weapon systems, is autonomous weapon systems. These systems, which are regarded as one of the important breakthroughs of the 21st century, act independently from the human operator and fulfill the coded task with a high level of precision. Today, there is no common opinion on the definition of autonomous systems. It is defined as systems requiring limited human intervention or systems that do not require human intervention after activation once according to the statements of the US Department of Defense, and fulfill their functions.[3]

With the increasing autonomy in weapon systems every day, the effectiveness of soldiers in the battlefields is decreasing. Countries that can successfully integrate artificial intelligence technology with their military elements will be the new winners of the battlefields. Autonomous weapons systems that give states the possibility of performing operations without causing military losses; It is described as the third revolution in the military field after gunpowder and nuclear (Yakar, 2019).

Although today's, autonomous weapon systems are not used in battlefields, the rapid advancement of technological developments in the field of artificial intelligence may lead us to see these systems in the battlefields in the future (Duygulu, 2019c). The fact that the states, who want to protect their power in the international system, make serious investments on the new generation war elements can lead to an armed race based on artificial intelligence. Therefore, we come across the conclusion that autonomous weapon systems may be the new balance determining factor between states.

It is stated that autonomous weapon systems, which are considered to be an indispensable element of modern war in the near future, have brought along some damages. Artificial intelligence experts and some states who argue that the autonomized military element's ability to self-learn will put human life at risk; It is known to fight against these systems under the slogan 'no to killer robots'. Noting that these military systems, which will have increased learning, decide who will die and who will live will seriously endanger human life; A number of studies are being carried out to ban the use of these systems in the military field.

Autonomous weapon systems, often confused with unmanned aerial vehicles, are a different new generation combat element. While UAVs need human intervention from a distance, autonomous weapon systems can act independently from the human operator. These systems, which can act by distinguishing whether any object they encounter are friends or enemies, have different features than UAVs (Duygulu, 2019d).

In the literature on international relations, it has been emphasized in the previous sections that the classification of wars will benefit the understanding of the phenomenon of war. In order to understand autonomous weapon systems, it is crucial to classify them according to their functions. Accordingly, the US Department of Defense divides autonomous weapons systems into three classes (Özer, 2020a).

2.3.1. Semi-Autonomous Weapon Systems

These are weapon systems that can be controlled by the operator in the field by the remote control system, select targets and have the ability to apply force when necessary (Özer, 2020b). The 'fire and forget' type rockets used today are semi-autonomous weapon systems that fall into this class. Another example is the unmanned aerial vehicles produced by few countries in the world. As mentioned in the previous section, unmanned aerial vehicles do not have full autonomous features. In order for a weapon system to be autonomous, there should be no external intervention. Therefore, unmanned aerial vehicles should be evaluated within the scope of semi-autonomous weapon systems.

2.3.2. Human Supervised Autonomous Weapon Systems

In human-controlled autonomous systems, as in semi-autonomous weapon systems, there are automatic systems whose functions are predetermined instead of remote control, even though they are human in the process. 'Automatic sentry weapons' placed in border posts is one of the best examples (Özer, 2020c). Such autonomous systems have access and intervention options at all levels of human operator. Therefore, these systems are the autonomous systems that contain the least artificial intelligence.

The high level of artificial intelligence of the two autonomous systems mentioned is the fully autonomous system that does not require human operator intervention. Systems, which we can call a full autonomous or autonomous weapon system, have not yet landed on the battlefields. However, given the technological developments, the fact that the battlefields will be shaped autonomous weapon systems in the near future appears. Although we do not see autonomous weapon systems on the battlefield, we are witnessing the landing of semi-autonomous weapon systems, which are a sub-branch of these systems, on the combat areas. A recent attack on Aramco oil facilities clearly shows us that the process of landing autonomous systems has begun.

 

THIRD CHAPTER

3. AUTONOMOUS VIEW OF ARAMCO ATTACK

The Middle East, which has been transformed with the 2011 Arab Spring, has experienced many changes in the political, economic and military fields. Revolts in Arab countries caused the change of policies towards the region by overthrowing or weakening the sovereign regimes in the countries. Yemen, which was a country where civil wars took place even before the Arab Spring; It was dragged into a new conflict with the wave of rebellion that started. Representing about thirty-five percent of the country, the Houthis; Their capture of many regions, including the capital Sana, opened up a new front to the Saudi-Iranian tension.[4]

The Houthis who control many parts of the country; They made many attacks on Saudi Arabia. The most striking of their attacks was the attack against Aramco oil facilities, which they carried out using herd SİHA technology in 2019.

Saudi Arabia, which spends billions of dollars on its defense each year, remains helpless in the face of a low-cost attack; countries have raised the question of how ready for the next generation of war is war elements. Of course, we need to look at the effects of the semi-autonomous weapon systems used in the attack, rather than by whom the attack was carried out. Armed unmanned aerial vehicle technology controlled by remote control system by human operator; It constitutes the most important asymmetric weapon of the battlefield. Considering the possibilities it has, the Houthis, which we can state as the weak side; The success of their attack on the strong side of the Saudi army shows us that the concept of strong and weak changed with the new generation war. After the Aramco attack,  the institutions that managed to combine knowledge with the military industry would become a superior side in the wars.

Ten armed unmanned aerial vehicles used in the attack were directed in a coordinated direction.[5]  Combined attacks and the use of new generation military elements in connection with the target can cause serious target damage.

After the oil facilities were severely damaged, Saudi officials went to stop oil production. One of the worst consequences of states not determining the threats to changing war conditions has been the attack on Aramco oil facilities. The attack carried out with semi-autonomous weapons systems at a time when the Riyadh administration never expected; it was felt in Saudi Arabia as the harshest example of changing war conditions. The Houthis that we can define as non-state actors; In 2015, seized Yemeni military equipment and developed these equipment through the modernization process with the support of Iran. This development paved the way for the transition of Houthis to semi-autonomous weapons systems (Balkan, 2019).

In the following process, the Houthis, by developing the unmanned aerial vehicles; Systematic attacks were carried out on missile ramps belonging to Saudi Arabia. High-cost defense systems of military technology have been rendered unusable with lower-cost weapon systems. From this point of view, we clearly see the impact of the military elements of the new generation war that non-state actors may have.

In general, the fact that Aramco oil facilities belonging to Saudi Arabia faced a semi-autonomous attack by a non-state actor revealed the necessity of understanding the battlefields of the future. The wars that have been transformed with the changing military technology open the door to new battlefields for us. The relationship of these new battlefields with autonomous weapon systems and the new generation war; It is a reality that countries should attach importance to in the security of the future.

 

FOURTH CHAPTER

4. BATTLEFIELDS OF FUTURE: AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS AND NEW GENERATION WAR

The phenomenon of war has undergone a serious transformation from past times to today. After the war adventure of mankind that started with sword and spear, gunpowder guns appeared. Then, with the information age, we came across autonomous weapons systems equipped with artificial intelligence. As mentioned in the previous chapters, although autonomous weapon systems have not landed on the battlefields, it is thought to be on the battlefields in the near future in parallel with the developing technology.

Parallel to the development of military technology, the changing of the battlefields has been a reality that we have encountered throughout the history of wars. From war on vast lands to a war without borders were passed. The introduction of wars into civil life and the availability of weapon systems used created new threats. The emerging new threat factor; is a non-state armed actor who can attack the city with his semi-autonomous weapons system.

Autonomous weapon systems will be the most important military elements of the next generation of war, which has developed with artificial intelligence. These weapon systems, which do not require human intervention in any way, can fulfill their duties without any human feelings during the operations.[6] Although there are no autonomous weapon systems in today's battlefield, the future battlefields will be shaped by autonomous weapon systems. In parallel with the arms race that started with the discovery of firearms, the developments in the field of autonomous weapon systems are among the states;  can be reveal an artificial intelligence based race. It is  known that the countries have invested in knowledge and the importance that they place on artificial intelligence. With the reflection of the developments in these areas on the military technology, the wars carried to the regions where civilians live now; will be done through autonomous systems.

Of course, as the most important actors of the future battlefields, we come across non-state armed actors. Taking these responsibilities over the states and struggling in the field in line with the interests of the states; The development in the weapon industry, which started with the use of semi-autonomous weapon systems, continues. The semi-autonomous weapons systems used in the Aramco attack clearly show that the attack capacities of non-state armed elements have expanded. Armed unmanned aerial vehicles; It has given the ability to resist armed groups that are not capable of engaging in a conventional conflict with states. The active use of armed unmanned aerial vehicles, which are defined as semi-autonomous systems, on the battlefields and the lack of a defense mechanism for these systems causes states to use in high cost air defense systems (Duygulu, 2019e). States that are vulnerable to the attacks of semi-autonomous systems should take steps to improve their defense systems in this area.

The need for new defense mechanisms emerges with each changing war. In the early ages, this need showed itself as a shield against the arrow. Today's, the need for defense is provided by missile systems. Using these high cost systems against new weapon systems  are increasing the cost of the war.

Today, there is a knowledge-based, interstate race. With this race leading to some innovations in the field of artificial intelligence, the developments in the field of military industry will seriously reflect on the global power balances. States entry into an arms race centered on autonomous weapons systems; can lead to autonomy of wars. Autonomy of wars; It means that the human operators in the field are replaced by weapon systems with artificial intelligence. With the autonomy of wars, the understanding of war in transformation will have reached a new ring. With this new ring, it will be imperative for states to do some innovations in military tactics. Some of these innovations are that,

1) To have an effective air defense system against autonomous weapon systems

2) To integrate the developments in artificial intelligence studies with the military industry

3) Instead of operations carried out with regular armies; Creation of operational units supported by autonomous systems that will organize frequent and scattered attacks

As of the 21st century, the new concept of war, which we are in, requires states to make some military innovations. As mentioned above, states in the new generation war; they need to develop air defense systems to prevent attacks from autonomous weapon systems. The air defense systems currently used by the countries are not designed to be used against the new generation weapon systems. Therefore, for the autonomous systems of the new generation war as new generation weapon systems; The development of air defense systems is of great importance.

On the other hand, states need to increase their investments in this field, leading the developments in the field of artificial intelligence. The years ahead will be the years when countries that can integrate artificial intelligence into the military industry will significantly change their power balances within the global order.

Wars with the regular armies of the past will now be replaced by attacks that are shaped by a new generation of warfare and supported by autonomous systems. In the new generation war, the reduction of human operator influence will enable states to make easy decisions because they do not lose soldiers in declaring war.

 

CONCLUSION

The changing nature of the concept of war has put the warring elements and the phenomenon of war into a transformation. The process that started with the sword and shield in the early ages revealed the technology of firearms with the discovery of gunpowder. With the changing military technology, the battlefields where wars were fought also entered a transformation. The wars, which were previously carried out on wide plains, were replaced by battles without a certain limit. The fact that artificial intelligence-assisted autonomous weapon systems will lead the wars of the future has emerged during the period called the new generation war.

Autonomous systems that can perform their functions without human operator intervention, armed unmanned aerial vehicles known as semi-autonomous systems, although they have not landed on the battlefields today, are actively used. The attacks carried out with armed unmanned aerial vehicles against Aramco oil facilities in 2019 clearly show that the semi-autonomous weapon systems are used in the battlefields.

With the emphasis on the understanding of war transformed in the first part, the fact that war is a phenomenon that develops by carrying the accumulation of every generation has emerged. Then, with the second part, it was concluded that today's wars became unmanned based on artificial intelligence. Of course, it was stated that the changing war conditions during this process caused the states to need some innovations; The effects of autonomous systems on the new generation war have been tried to be determined. Accordingly, it was concluded that states need effective air defense systems against autonomous systems, developments in artificial intelligence studies should be integrated with the military industry, and that an unmanned battlefield with autonomous systems is today's new reality.

The current thesis study has attempted to increase the interest in this field by drawing attention to the lack of academic studies in the field of the effects of autonomous systems on the new generation war.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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